Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.204706 0.245942 0.295413 0.359769 0.442201 0.545516 6.868369e-01
2025-05-25 0.137889 0.179784 0.235528 0.316851 0.435466 0.607128 8.840942e-01
2025-06-01 0.104275 0.145664 0.205862 0.303172 0.463424 0.730528 1.242512e+00
2025-06-08 0.081636 0.121072 0.183121 0.293303 0.497013 0.888092 1.788841e+00
2025-06-15 0.066241 0.103703 0.167065 0.290079 0.545060 1.111868 2.712781e+00
2025-06-22 0.054663 0.089816 0.153306 0.287305 0.597714 1.399321 4.233998e+00
2025-06-29 0.044187 0.075485 0.135120 0.270111 0.614509 1.634058 6.132399e+00
2025-07-06 0.032773 0.057151 0.104948 0.217344 0.519980 1.489638 6.392595e+00
2025-07-13 0.028089 0.050674 0.097113 0.213602 0.558038 1.830732 1.020204e+01
2025-07-20 0.024982 0.046669 0.093527 0.219440 0.632172 2.431367 1.901977e+01
2025-07-27 0.022636 0.043757 0.091686 0.229791 0.734319 3.378702 4.077609e+01
2025-08-03 0.020431 0.040708 0.088791 0.236505 0.834708 4.612318 9.303366e+01
2025-08-10 0.017727 0.036213 0.081682 0.229184 0.883091 5.795826 2.062864e+02
2025-08-17 0.015331 0.031989 0.074270 0.218106 0.909761 7.038817 4.786294e+02
2025-08-24 0.013814 0.029577 0.071155 0.221262 1.022807 9.935485 2.121722e+03
2025-08-31 0.012516 0.027457 0.068338 0.224693 1.152399 14.353624 1.935330e+04
2025-09-07 0.011470 0.025778 0.066397 0.231207 1.324979 22.035900 2.717989e+06
2025-09-14 0.010530 0.024201 0.064364 0.236757 1.514587 34.506411 NaN
2025-09-21 0.009449 0.022054 0.059978 0.229357 1.590229 46.559025 NaN
2025-09-28 0.007903 0.018413 0.049944 0.190109 1.305465 37.053175 NaN
2025-10-05 0.007281 0.017247 0.047930 0.190402 1.431758 55.098633 NaN
2025-10-12 0.006860 0.016574 0.047426 0.198534 1.675301 99.088604 NaN
2025-10-19 0.006528 0.016102 0.047518 0.210444 2.020295 207.641690 NaN